TikTok Shop could become a top-three global retailer by 2030

TikTok Shop could become a top-three global retailer across all categories by 2030, according to a new report from commerce agency Flywheel, reported by WWD. The report estimates that TikTok Shop could generate roughly $1 trillion in annual sales and capture 14.6% of global marketplace share.

The projection would place TikTok Shop behind Amazon, which Flywheel estimates could reach $1.1 trillion in sales by 2030, and Pinduoduo in second place. Notably, that ranking would push Walmart, the current largest global retailer, to fifth position, making it the only top-five retailer still primarily dependent on in-store sales.

If realized, the forecast would confirm a structural shift. TikTok Shop is no longer a social platform with a shopping tab. It is operating as a retailer at global scale.

Quarterly performance shows rapid growth

The longer-term projection is supported by recent performance data. In Q3 2025, TikTok Shop generated approximately $19 billion in global gross merchandise value. The U.S. contributed about $4.5 billion, making it the platform’s largest market.

For comparison, eBay reported $20.1 billion in GMV in the same quarter. That places TikTok Shop’s quarterly volume within striking distance of a legacy marketplace that has operated for nearly three decades.

The scale is part of a broader expansion under parent company ByteDance, whose China-based sister app Douyin has already demonstrated what mature social commerce can look like. Market intelligence firm ECDB estimates that Douyin’s 2024 GMV exceeded $500 billion, far surpassing TikTok Shop’s performance outside China. In effect, TikTok Shop is replicating a proven commerce model internationally.

Seller growth and marketplace dynamics

Merchant onboarding shows the marketplace’s velocity. TikTok Shop now hosts about 15 million sellers globally. In the U.S., registrations have surged roughly 5,000 percent since 2023, rising from a few thousand early merchants to more than 475,000 shops by mid-2025.

This expansion increases product variety, which can attract more shoppers. As traffic rises, more creators are incentivized to participate through affiliate links and shoppable videos.

Category trends and commerce expansion

Several factors could be driving TikTok’s growth. Unlike traditional e-commerce, where search intent dominates, TikTok Shop operates on algorithmic discovery. Products are surfaced through short-form video, livestream shopping, and affiliate creator content rather than keyword queries. TikTok claims that shoppers are discovering products through short videos and livestreams and then purchasing them directly within the app.

Beauty remains the leading category on TikTok Shop, with brands such as Medicube, Tarte Cosmetics, and WavyTalk ranking among the top sellers. Health and wellness, home goods, and women’s apparel are also expanding.

The platform is also moving into luxury resale. Reports say listings have included brands such as Hermès, Chanel, and Rolex, with AI-based authentication and livestream selling formats. This suggests the marketplace is not limited to low-priced impulse items.

Overall TikTok platform growth supports commerce expansion

TikTok continues to report more than one billion global monthly active users, providing distribution at a scale that standalone marketplaces must acquire through paid traffic. On the revenue side, TikTok’s ad business has grown significantly in recent years, contributing to ByteDance’s overall monetization. While ByteDance does not publicly break out TikTok Shop revenue separately from total commerce, third-party estimates and quarterly GMV data show that commerce is becoming a central pillar of the ecosystem.

Could U.S. regulatory pressure impact this projection?

Despite its growth, TikTok’s U.S. operations have faced regulatory scrutiny related to national security concerns. Following a 2024 law that could have required divestment or a ban, TikTok established a new U.S. entity, TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC, in January 2026. The structure gives majority control to American investors, including Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX, while ByteDance retains a 19.9% minority stake. The joint venture is expected to oversee U.S. operations, including data localization and content moderation.

Although the transition prevents the immediate risk of a nationwide ban, uncertainty remains around how the change in control will affect core platform functions, including recommendation algorithms and commerce features.

However, two dynamics could mitigate some risk. First, the U.S. represents only a portion of TikTok Shop’s global opportunity. The platform is now live in 17 markets, including  Spain, the U.K., France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Brazil, and much of Southeast Asia. Geographic diversification reduces dependence on any single regulatory environment.

Second, ByteDance has already proven the social commerce model at a massive scale in China through Douyin. If Flywheel’s projection materializes, TikTok Shop would compete with major marketplaces for a significant share of the global retail market.